Fund Return 2025 - 2026

Fund return to 30 April 2026

Investment Commentary

Provided by Mercer - CERS Investment Adviser

Market Developments

Global equities rebounded in April, with the ACWI returning 10.2%. Emerging market stocks outperformed both the US and other developed markets due to a strong, AI-led rebound in Asia; nonetheless, all equities posted strong positive returns. The dollar weakened following its strong run the previous month. Yields rose across the medium-to-long end of the curve amid continued inflation uncertainty, which mostly offset high coupons. This produced another month of only modest fixed-income returns. Credit spreads tightened.

US nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March — the largest increase since December 2024 and well above expectations. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.3% as the labor market remained resilient. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell back to historic lows. Retail sales increased 1.7% in March, rebounding from 0.7% in February. The Federal Reserve held rates steady but signaled a hawkish stance amid uncertainty about the inflationary impact of higher energy prices, which could temporarily add to inflation that is already running above target. Consensus market expectations for both economic growth and inflation were revised slightly upward for the US and more meaningfully outside the US; investors still price in one 25-basis-point rate cut for the US in each of 2026 and 2027.

Headline inflation in the US rose to 3.3% year-over-year in March, in line with expectations. Inflation remains above target, and this reading was mostly driven by rising energy prices. Headline inflation also rose in March in the UK, the Euro area, and Japan. The Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank held rates steady in their April meetings while noting potential upward price pressures from the Middle East conflict.

The Middle East conflict remained in the headlines during April. The US and Israel paused air strikes on Iran in mid-April, and the US began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz instead. While the resulting loss of oil export revenue is expected to increase pressure on the regime, the situation remained in flux at month end. Oil prices stabilized around the $100 mark, and the so-far limited economic impact of higher oil prices — especially in the US — contributed to a market recovery as focus shifted from conflict concerns to a generally strong earnings season. Listed real assets, such as global REITs and listed infrastructure, underperformed broad equities in April. Commodity returns were strong as oil prices remained high. Gold declined, although year-to-date performance remains strong.

Outlook

Despite the volatile geopolitical backdrop, global growth is generally around trend. Inflationary pressures have risen on higher energy prices with inflation now likely to be above central bank targets in most economies. The passthrough from higher energy prices could be limited however as the labour market is weak. But risks to inflation are to the upside via the oil price. Most central banks are likely on an extended pause as they digest the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy prices. Geopolitics and policy are the key risks at this stage, also due to indirect effects on liquidity and financing conditions.

Our outlook for equities is neutral with initial Q1 2026 earnings figures looking strong due to sustained AI optimism. Valuations are not attractive and the escalation in the Middle East leads to near term uncertainty.

Investment Update - April 2026

Notes

• Scheme Year to date performance is the period from 1 June 2025 to the most recent month shown.
• Performance shown is net of annual management charge.
• The investment choices offered by the Trustee will be regularly reviewed and may be varied from time to time.
• Before you choose a fund we recommend that you speak to a financial adviser. 
• If you require further information please contact the CIRT Team at info@cirt.ie