Fund Return 2019-2020

Fund return to 31 May 2020

Investment Commentary

Provided by Mercer - CIRT Trustee Investment Adviser 

Market Developments

Global equities closed out the month with losses after reaching fresh highs in mid-January. Market sentiment has deteriorated since mid-January as investors assessed the potential impacts of the Coronavirus (COVID – 19) outbreak. Despite this the US held up relatively well with the S&P 500 finishing the month flat. However, emerging markets did suffer losses, especially Latin America and China in anticipation of economic growth fallout from the outbreak.

The global economy continued to slow during Q4 2019, but the trade agreement between the US & China and looser financial conditions should help growth in 2020. The IMF also predicts that global growth will accelerate in 2020 to 3.3% and 3.4% in 2021.

Major Central Banks left policies unchanged in January, the Fed continued to expand its balance sheet while the ECB and BoJ continued their QE programs. As a result, global Central Banks are once again net purchasers of assets.

Geopolitical risks eased over the month, mainly due to the US and China finally signing their “phase one” trade agreement after more than 18 months of negotiations. This left tariffs on about $370 billion in Chinese goods in place, representing about three-quarters of China’s exports to the US. After three years of disputes, Brexit finally took place on January 31 and Britain and the European Union have taken their first steps toward negotiating a new trade deal. The 50th World Economic Forum annual meeting took place in Davos, Switzerland where the climate crisis and trade disruptions were key topics.

Growth assets underperformed in January, and equities underperformed high yield and emerging market debt. US Treasuries and gold posted positive returns while commodities sold off in January. The US dollar gained broadly, most significantly against the euro, British pound and emerging market currencies. Equity and bond volatility picked up in January but remained below historical norms.

Outlook

Our central view for global growth remains a gradual pick up to trend over 2020 but the impact of the Coronavirus is certainly going to detract from growth in the first half of the year at least. In this scenario, some of the lost growth is likely to be recovered in the second half of the year. China’s economy amounts to over 15% of global GDP, up from 4% during the SARS epidemic back in 2002/03. Growth across China’s major trading partners is likely to come under more threat, given their interdependence with the Chinese economy, especially in the services sector. As an example, regarding tourism, China’s estimated contribution to aggregate GDP of Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Thailand, Korea, Singapore and Malaysia ranges between 3% to 10%. Chinese inbound visits as a proportion of total visits range between an estimated 15% and 35% for these countries. Direct first order effects will likely be material and second order effects are also likely.

We believe that volatility is likely to remain elevated in equity markets and the Chinese Yuan over the coming weeks as more news on the virus emerges. The impact has been felt across both domestic and international markets and to a large degree reflects the temporary reduction in global growth. China accounts for roughly 35% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and Asian equities constitute the vast majority of this index. Due to this, it is likely emerging markets will be most directly impacted by any perceived deterioration in the situation. Provided the virus does not spread too far beyond China, and disruptions to economic activity are only temporary, markets should begin to look past the short term impacts.

 NOTES

• Scheme Year to date performance is the period from 1 June 2019 to the most recent month shown.
• Performance shown is net of annual management charge.
• The investment choices offered by the Trustee will be regularly reviewed and may be varied from time to time.
• Before you choose a fund we recommend that you speak to a Financial Adviser.  The CIRT Trustee preferred Financial Adviser is Milestone Advisory DAC.  You can contact them or your own financial adviser to assist you to review your investment choices.  You can contact Milestone Advisory DAC. at Canal House, Canal Road, Dublin 6, at [email protected] or call them on 01 4068020. Their website is www.milestoneadvisory.ie.

If you require further information please contact the CIRT Team at [email protected]